I am writing this as I hear Leo Laporte talk about how Windows Phone 7 differs from Android in regards to platform fragmentation.
As it turns out, Microsoft is very strict about what qualifies as a WP7 device. It must have, for instance, a certain fixed display resolution and a minimum amount of memory, amongst other attributes. They even define the minimum CPU clock speed allowed (1GHz). Leo and others point to the competitive advantage this represents compared to the fragmented Android ecosystem.
In my opinion, while I concede this does give WP7 users a level of certainty about their experience that rivals that offered by the iPhone (e.g., Microsoft will be able to push OTA updates to all devices, no matter what carrier or handset maker), it also seals the fate of Microsoft's product in the mobile OS war. WP7 is looking like a viable alternative to the iPhone, Blackberry and Android in the high-end arena, at least as far as capabilities go. The flip side is that Microsoft is leaving all other tiers of the market entirely open for Android to conquer unopposed. The thing is, as I've mentioned many times before, that's where all the action will really happen.
Apple, RIM, Microsoft and Google are all competing for the minds and wallets of sophisticated smart-phone users. Meanwhile, 80% of worldwide mobile phone sales today still goes to feature phones.
Apple can only marginally competes in this space, by lowering the price of past generation iPhones. When it decided to limit the range of hardware specs of what can be sold as a WP7 device, Microsoft also priced itself out of it.
In the upcoming quarters, don't be surprised to read about the continued steep growth of Android's market share, while Apple, RIM and Microsoft fight for the high ground. Don't get me wrong, Android is doing very well in the high end too, but that is chump change when you realize the size of budget constrained emerging markets like China, India, Indonesia and Brazil. Increasingly, these countries are going online through mobile devices.
Also, let's not forget Android's Cambrian Explosion as it becomes the preferred OS for all kinds of consumer electronics, from digital cameras to TVs and toasters to on-board navigation systems. We can thank Android's "fragmentation problem" for that.
It is a perfect storm. The kind that only happens once a decade in the industry.
PS: After writing this, I went back to finish listening to the show. To be fair, towards the end of its first half, Gizmodo's Joel Johnson made some really good comments about the opportunities Android have in replacing feature phones in emerging markets.
